By: Michael Tough Realty Group

June 2019 Market Update

Tags: #AuroraRealEstate #NewmarketRealestate #eastgwillimburyrealestate #Bradfordwestgwillimbury #innisfilrealestate #alconarealestate #michaeltoughrealtygroup

Summer Is Almost Here … And So Is The Spring Market

Trusting you are enjoying the warmer weather and sunshine. Similarly, the real estate world is basking in some of the first decent news we have had in a while. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) data shows a strengthening of the market over-all; and a tightening of inventory across most of the TREB trading communities. Sales are up; listings are down; and prices are gaining.
And, as always, we caution everyone from making any buy or sell decisions based on the broad TREB area. Real Estate is hyper-local. With that in mind, let’s look at each of our trading areas.


Similar to the GTA, we see a rise in home sales. May saw an 18% increase of sales month over month; and a 33% increase in sales year over year. Overall, a more positive trend in buyer confidence and activity. From a price perspective, although Aurora home prices remains down by 26% from the peak of mid-2017, the prices are showing signs of stabilizing. Prices are up 1% from May 2016. When evaluating against the 20-year trend line, Aurora prices seem to be back on track. Inventory levels appear to be tightening. Assuming continued buyer confidence, we may see a shift back toward a balanced to seller market.


Prices are down 39% from the 2017 peak and remain lower than where prices were in May 2016 just before the big spike occurred, albeit only marginally less. Like Aurora, the early 2017 spike was so steep, a more significant price decline was to be expected to get prices back in line with the 20-year trend. On a positive note, listings are only up 9% year over year however sales are up 46%. This does suggest a possible tightening of inventory if the sales to listing ratio continues in this bullish pattern.

Another community that saw an eye-popping price increase from mid 2016 to early 2017, prices naturally came down. However, East Gwill prices are 18% higher than May 2016. In part, attribute this to the growing number of new sub-divisions with new or almost new homes selling at a premium. A tightening of supply is definitely occurring at this time. Active listings are down 12% year over year; and sales are up 28% year over year. A good indicator that prices will remain stable in East Gwill heading into the summer.


Prices peaked by almost 58% during the early 2017 spike and have certainly settled back. However, prices overall remain 12% higher than May 2016. Inventory concerns may be looming here also as active listings are down 23% year over year and total sales are up by 18%.


Similar to East Gwillimbury, price data is being skewed by the surge of development and the newer builds that are selling for higher prices. The average house price in Innsifil is up 35% since May 2016. Much of this must be attributed to the new housing developments surrounding the older, more established neighbourhoods of Alcona, Stroud, Lefroy and Churchill. Eliminating the newer builds from the data, Innisfil over-all seems to be back to normal. Listing inventory is up 10% year over year; and sales are up 31%.

Overall, across our trading areas, buyers remain cautious and homes are longer on the market. It is not unusual to see the same buyer return again and again to a listing. Analysis paralysis and indecisiveness just seems to be the norm right now. My expectation is that buyers will continue to be cautious and hesitant; and low-ball offers, although frustrating for home sellers, are not unusual. We caution any home seller against out-right refusing an offer. Naturally, each circumstance is different. However, getting an offer is like gold these days. Treat it gently.
And for the buyers, remember that a home is still a great wealth builder. You may not get the deal you really wanted however you are still buying a home that will continue to grow in value over time. Not advising to over-pay for any home. However, respect the comparable sales data when making an offer.
We hope that you enjoy the summer ahead. As always, we are here to assist with all your real estate related goals and to interpret the market based on your unique goals.    

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